Devilish Dimensions - Why Right Field Needs to be Neutered

Just a quick note off the bat: This article was the primary impetus for deciding to start a blog.  I had some opinions after watching years of baseball at PETCO Park, which turned into analysis and at which point I wanted to publish it.  I could think of no better way than to start up my own blog.  After i write this, I can't promise that I won't eventually go away like so many other baseball blogs I've read that just cease updating.  I don't have any aspirations of making this a daily thing.  I'm not getting paid to do it and I certainly don't have the time, energy, or desire to spam the same news and notes that are already so capably reported and widely available.  I have some ideas in mind and would like to update every couple weeks with some thoughtful content. But know that this topic in particular is very important to me.

On to the analysis.  Some have speculated that the thick ocean air is at least part of what makes it so difficult to hit a home run at PETCO Park.  Also, it's clear that the ball travels better during the day than at night.  These things may be a small part of the equation, but after I took a close look, I came to the conclusion that the vast majority of the problem was the sheer dimensions.  You can say a ball "died" at the warning track but it's simply an optical illusion if the wall is significantly further than would be found in other parks.  It doesn't always "die" - it just didn't clear the wall.

A ball hit to the middle of the warning track in right field at PETCO is often times a bomb deep into the seats in another park.  In a scenario where we edit the fences, our location at sea level and in thick ocean air ensures that by simply making the dimensions fair and reasonable when compared to other parks, we will have covered all the bases.  We know the ball doesn't fly further here so it's not like we can make the dimensions acceptable compared to other fair parks and then worry that it's going to become a home run haven.  

I wanted to simply compare the distance required to hit a home run in a given direction in PETCO to the distance required to hit a home run in the same direction at another park.  My approach was pretty straightforward.  Using a very accurate measurement tool that comes with Google Earth, I compared the dimensions at PETCO to a few other parks.  When comparing park dimensions it isn't enough to just use terms like left field foul pole, center, or the power alleys.  Those are pretty vague.  Relatively few baseballs will be hit to any one location and sometimes the dimensions can be misleading.  Take the Pesky Pole in Fenway.  A couple times a season you might see someone take advantage of the 302-foot dimension and get a cheapie, but the distance to hit a home run increases so dramatically as you move away from the foul pole that it's very deceiving, in a practical sense, to say that it's 302 feet to right in Fenway.  If you hit the ball just 10 degrees further toward center, you have to hit it 80 feet further for it to count as a four-bagger.

Using PNC Park in Pittsburgh as an example, here's a visual representation of the measurements I took for each of the parks that I analyzed, starting with 0 degrees (right field pole) to 90 degrees (left field pole) at 5 degree increments:

So, for PETCO and each field that I compared with our beloved baseball home, I took 19 measurements that would correspond to the same angle at the other park.  Comparing the measurements indicated by the Google Earth tool with the official data down the lines and to center field, these data were exceedingly accurate.  These simple comparisons, comprised of a couple hours of computer grunt work instead of convoluted data, should tell the tale as well as anything else will.

A couple explanations of the data above.  The parkfactors.com rating is a number where 100 is league average in terms of the number of runs allowed.  They analyze by total runs scored as well as home runs, and average the two.  PETCO therefore would allow 81 runs or 81 home runs (averaged) for every 100 runs or home runs allowed in the typical baseball park in the majors.  So according to them, Nationals Park is the most "fair" or typical offensive park of those in the chart.  

To put this data to use, let's start with an example of Mr. Buck Naked Tanning Bed Guy himself, Brian Giles.  Giles spent four years mashing in PNC Park, hitting anywhere from 35 to 39 home runs per season before being traded to the Padres a little more than mid-way through his fifth season with the Pirates.  The next five seasons he hit between 12 and 23 home runs for the Padres.  Giles was a dead pull hitter who tended to hit high, moderate distance home runs.  Some of them looked like bombs in Pittsburgh.  Many of those same balls would not be close to going out in PETCO.  Starting at 10 degrees in the chart above and looking at the seven measurements toward center, Giles would have had to hit the ball an additional 29 feet, 22 feet, 18 feet, 20 feet, 22 feet, 13.5 feet, and 10 feet to get the ball out of PETCO when hitting at the corresponding angle, compared to his old digs.  So is it any surprise that his home run production dipped?  It shouldn't be.  If the Chicago Bulls had raised the rim to 12 feet would we wonder why Jordan wasn't getting as many dunks?

Even the strongest hitters in the big leagues need to hit a few that just barely clear the fence to get the high totals.  For proof, look at any big-time home run hitter using Hit Tracker Online - they all hit a few that just barely clear the wall. That website is a great resource where you can compare home runs hit at Petco to other parks. 

Now let's to go some aerial comparisons.  Let's start with one of the foremost hitters' parks, Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.  Admittedly this is comparing the foremost bandbox in the big leagues with the foremost pitchers' park.  It is done purposely for dramatic effect.

Great American Ballpark vs. PETCO

On May 27th of this year, Joey Votto faced Jamie Moyer and hit a home run.  This one stuck in my mind for two reasons.  He took a crab step forward and then launched it to a remote pavilion in right center field.  I thought "my god, what a shot" and it was a nice shot.  However due to the extremely shallow walls at Great American it appeared much further than it was.  It went about 423 feet, which would have been a few rows deep at PETCO.  At the most ridiculous part of Petco in right-center, a ball would go more than 12 rows into the seats at Great American yet not clear the wall at PETCO.  Notice that the left fields are much more similar in size.  Let's continue the comparisons.

AT&T in San Fran.  Maybe the most similar in terms of dimensions, with one major difference: The wind usually blows out to right.

Coors Field.   It was built large because the ball flies much farther at an elevation of 1 mile.  Not built that way due to whimsy.

Dodger Stadium.  It's clearly a pitcher's park, but it at least plays a bit more fair in the power alleys, where a good portion of home runs tend to be hit.  It's o.k. to have deep corners or even deep portions in center field, but when you consistently screw the hitters in the power alleys, that's when they really tend to get frustrated.

Fenway actually plays pretty fair overall, despite its offensive reputation. The "Williamsburg" bullpens make it more fair than PETCO in right field.  I actually think that the idea of adding a visitor's bullpen to our right field would be one good option to look at when trying to figure out how to reformat the park in a cost-effective manner.  Bullpens in foul territory have always seemed out of place to me.

Nationals Park.  Plays very fair / league average.  You could clear entire sections in right and not come close in PETCO. 

Lastly, Yankee Stadium.  A rich team's stadium. Plays fair to left (although PETCO is still larger there), and plays toward the strength of the most valuable players in baseball in right.  Lefty power hitters and left-handed pitchers.  

Working "Moneyball" Into the Discussion

What's the big deal about making the park play in a similar fashion as most of the other parks in baseball?  Why not just tailor our roster to the needs of the park, get dominant pitching, and pitch, defend, dink and dunk and steal our way to our fair share of World Series rings?

First of all, there's a great article written by Mickey Koke including analysis on what an albatross this park has actually been and how it can affect the psyche of the team.  Baseball is very much a psychological game.  I won't cover that here other than to say that evidence says this park not only suppresses runs but also eats away at the resolve and discipline of hitters. 

The thinking goes that because Petco is so big, we should be able to put together an outfield of fleet, contact-hitting outfielders with gap power who could make a living hitting doubles and triples.  Tell me: How many players in the major leagues currently fit that description?  The Padres have two very typical "rangy" outfielder types in Cameron Maybin and Will Venable.  They are a good example of athletic outfielders in this league and they fit our required style defensively. Both struggle to make contact or drive the ball with regularity.  There are 5-10 outfielders in the majors that would make ideal PETCO outfielders.  We don't currently have any of them, despite the fact that we've now been playing here for many years.  So how's that task of shaping the team to the park coming along?

"Moneyball" the movie did the book a great disservice by glossing over the main point the book was trying to make.  That is, that the A's won by finding efficiency in the market - in any statistic.  For reasons unknown, Bennett Miller decided to make a movie that made it appear that a good-looking, swashbuckling GM obsessed with one statistic (On-Base Percentage) and relying upon just one front-office employee for guidance, could build a winning team.  Moneyball was never about just one statistic.  It's really about identifying undervalued assets of any kind in the market and putting them to use. 

In an effort to portray the A's as a woebegone franchise they never made much mention of the Tim Hudson / Barry Zito / Mark Mulder triumvirate that was just awesome, or beast-mode hitters such as Miguel Tejada, Eric Chavez and Jermaine Dye.  The book portrays Scott Hatteberg and his his 15 HR / 61 RBI and his .374 on-base percentage as a nice additional piece that was found on the cheap, and Chad Bradford as another undervalued asset in the market - a career minor leaguer that had never been given a fair chance.  

Tangentially, let me point out that a book should have been written instead about the Marlins, who somehow won the World Series twice in the span of seven years while working around one of the 2-3 worst baseball markets in major league baseball along with our sunny San Diego.  Clearly, neither of their general managers were good looking enough.

The point in bringing "Moneyball" into the discussion is this: The new ownership of the Padres is going to raise the payroll, but we will never be a free-spending team.  We need to be able to evaluate talent on par with or better than other teams, coach our draft picks better than other teams, and acquire talent that other teams overlook to fill in the gaps.  We need to be able to find our own loopholes in the market. Sometimes it might be pitching, (which in some seasons tends to all get hurt at once).  Sometimes it might be an aging, left-handed hitting outfielder who still has something left in the tank.  If that player could make a difference for your team, you need to be able to acquire him and have him be able to produce, not hit cans of corn to the warning track all season.

The Padres have had a horrible record developing and keeping power hitters, even dating back to the days of Jack Murphy Stadium, which was a very fair ballpark.  I'd like to see that change in my lifetime.  Young players like Alonso and Grandal have so much promise.  I'd hate to see them get chewed up and spit out like so many hitters before them.

The request here isn't to somehow turn PETCO into a hitters' park.  I suggest moderate changes that would still result in a moderate pitchers park or a fair park, so that a well-struck ball in any direction stands at least a chance at being rewarded.  After all, that's the point of this wonderful game we all love.